Spoiler Alert: Cliffhanger Coming

For the better part of spring and throughout the summer, we continued to talk about the weather—and not in flattering terms. Well, we did, except during the times we spent cursing under our breath about the economy ("Blank those blankety blank Demopublicans!"). While I will grant you that this wicked one-two punch has been painful to the industry during the worst extended stretch in recent memory, I would also suggest that neither of our favorite scapegoats is the real nemesis.
 

COLD, HARD FACTS ... Several years ago I was talking with my longtime friend Thomas Birt about the state of the industry. If you recall, most of us were smiling more several years ago. Not Tom, though.

The owner of Mesquite Valley Growers Nursery in Tucson, Ariz., told me he had just finished a book by Harry S. Dent Jr. called "The Great Depression Ahead," in which the demographics specialist had put pen to paper and concluded that in the very near future our economy was about to reach a crisis point. The primary reason had nothing to do with either of the problems plaguing the green industry today. Instead, Dent claimed, the United States was about to fail arithmetic.

Say what?

As I noted, one of the hats Dent wears is that of demographer. That means he "ers" demographs, or, in laymen's terms, he analyzes figures that reflect how a society is comprised and then tells us what they all mean. In the case of retail, Dent decided, they would soon mean trouble.
 

HERE'S WHY ... The aptly named Baby Boomer generation (as in babies booming at record rates) would, according to Dent's research, stop being the primary source of retail business roughly in the latter part of the first decade of the 2000s. In its place would come Generation X, as in X marks the spot where some 34 million fewer potential buyers would congregate at malls and strip centers and eateries—and, yes, garden centers.

And, because there wouldn't be nearly as many Xers as Boomers, those businesses dependent on traffic (translation: all businesses) would likely take a hit—not because of disparate shopping habits or personal tastes or median incomes, but because of simple math rules. Essentially, 75 million minus 41 million equals a world of hurt for retail—at least potentially.

So, if Dent is correct about the primary challenge facing retailers today (and I'm going to go ahead and argue that he is), then what is the primary solution to ensure you can still prosper in the days ahead?

Please check back here next month for an answer.
 

yyoungblood@gie.net