Outlook 2010

Check out these retailer predictions for the upcoming year


Garden Center

Published November 13, 2009

This fall, 211 garden retailers broke out their crystal balls and offered their predictions for 2010 in our economic forecast survey. The overall picture seems pretty promising. Most garden center operators expect business to be as good as this year, if not better.


 In 2010, what are your purchasing plans for the following categories?

Trees
Increase orders substantially.............  3.4%
Increase orders slightly.......................16.2%
Keep same levels as 2009................ 47.5%
Decrease orders slightly.................... 25.1%
Decrease orders substantially............ 7.8%

Shrubs
Increase orders substantially.............. 2.8%
Increase orders slightly...................... 24.4%
Keep same levels as 2009................ 46.7%
Decrease orders slightly.................... 20.6%
Decrease orders substantially............ 5.6%

Bedding plants
Increase orders substantially.............. 8.7%
Increase orders slightly...................... 43.2%
Keep same levels as 2009................ 35.0%
Decrease orders slightly.................... 11.5%
Decrease orders substantially............ 1.6%

Vegetable starts
Increase orders substantially............ 16.3%
Increase orders slightly...................... 51.6%
Keep same levels as 2009................ 25.0%
Decrease orders slightly....................... 4.9%
Decrease orders substantially............. 2.2%

Seeds
Increase orders substantially............ 12.5%
Increase orders slightly...................... 41.5%
Keep same levels as 2009................ 36.4%
Decrease orders slightly....................... 6.8%
Decrease orders substantially............. 2.8%

Perennials
Increase orders substantially............... 8.4%
Increase orders slightly....................... 42.4%
Keep same levels as 2009................. 34.6%
Decrease orders slightly...................... 12.6%
Decrease orders substantially.............. 2.1%

Indoor plants
Increase orders substantially................ 1.8%
Increase orders slightly........................ 26.8%
Keep same levels as 2009.................. 53.7%
Decrease orders slightly...................... 12.8%
Decrease orders substantially.............. 4.9%

Garden supplies (soils, mulches, fertilizers, etc.)
Increase orders substantially................... 8.0%
Increase orders slightly........................... 35.6%
Keep same levels as 2009..................... 47.9%
Decrease orders slightly........................... 8.5%
Decrease orders substantially.................... 0%

Holiday
Increase orders substantially.................... 2.8%
Increase orders slightly............................ 16.8%
Keep same levels as 2009...................... 57.0%
Decrease orders slightly.......................... 18.4%
Decrease orders substantially..................... 5%

Gift and décor
Increase orders substantially.................... 3.4%
Increase orders slightly............................ 22.7%
Keep same levels as 2009...................... 43.2%
Decrease orders slightly.......................... 21.6%
Decrease orders substantially.................. 9.1%

Fountains and statuary
Increase orders substantially.................... 1.7%
Increase orders slightly............................ 22.0%
Keep same levels as 2009...................... 42.4%
Decrease orders slightly........................... 24.9%
Decrease orders substantially...................... 9%

Pottery
Increase orders substantially..................... 1.7%
Increase orders slightly............................. 30.9%
Keep same levels as 2009....................... 45.7%
Decrease orders slightly........................... 16.0%
Decrease orders substantially................... 5.7%

Furniture
Increase orders substantially..................... 3.2%
Increase orders slightly............................. 11.0%
Keep same levels as 2009....................... 46.8%
Decrease orders slightly........................... 23.4%
Decrease orders substantially................. 15.6%

Tools
Increase orders substantially.................... 3.0%
Increase orders slightly............................ 16.0%
Keep same levels as 2009...................... 62.1%
Decrease orders slightly.......................... 13.0%
Decrease orders substantially.................. 5.9%

What is your expectation for sales revenues in 2010 versus 2009?
Increase more than 20%............. 4.8%
Increase 10% to 20%................. 32.5%
Increase 1% to 9%...................... 36.8%
Same as 2009............................. 15.3%
Decline 1% to 9%.......................... 5.3%
Decline 10% to 20%...................... 4.8%
Decline more than 20%................ 0.5%

What are your expectations for store traffic in 2010?
Increase more than 20%.............. 5.7%
Increase 10% to 20%.................. 27.0%
Increase 1% to 9%....................... 38.4%
Same as 2009............................... 21.3%
Decline 1% to 9%............................ 3.8%
Decline 10% to 20%....................... 3.3%
Decline more than 20%................. 0.5%

Compared to 2009, what will your permanent staff look like in 2010?
Much bigger...................................... 1.4%
Slightly bigger................................... 9.6%
About the same.............................. 75.1%
Slightly smaller............................... 12.9%
Much smaller..................................... 1.0%

What about seasonal staff?
Much bigger...................................... 1.9%
Slightly bigger................................ 21.4%
About the same............................. 61.9%
Slightly smaller................................ 9.5%
Much smaller................................... 5.2%

What are your plans for the marketing budget in 2010?
Increase more than 20%.............. 2.4%
Increase 10% to 20%.................. 15.8%
Increase 1% to 9%....................... 30.1%
Same as 2009.............................. 42.1%
Decrease 1% to 9%....................... 5.3%
Decrease 10% to 20%................... 3.3%
Decrease more than 20%............. 1.0%

Where will you spend your marketing dollars? (Respondents could choose more than one answer.)
Direct mail...................................... 53.2%
E-newsletter................................... 64.2%
Newspaper..................................... 52.7%
Online advertisements................. 27.4%
Print newsletter.............................. 22.9%
Radio............................................... 30.3%
TV....................................................  18.4%
Other (most cited): Magazine ads, flyers, billboards, display gardens, social media, search-engine optimization, events, consumer garden shows, neighborhood newsletters, yellow pages, reward programs


What other product line is likely to do well in 2010? (Listed in “most cited” order)
EDIBLE PLANTS, ORGANICS, Design/Service, container gardens, “green” products, water garden, irrigation, herbs,
fountains, décor, composters, birding, native plants

What is the biggest factor that will impact your business in 2010?
ECONOMY, WEATHER, Marketing, Housing Market, store traffic, government policies, competition, customer service, staff

 

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