How to win in 2010

We probably should commence with some form of fanfare, what with all the attention this story is likely to generate. It’s a given: You put the word “trends” anywhere in the headline – especially in the headline on a magazine cover – and a veritable confluence ensues.

Think back-porch lamp and moths.

Indeed, few words say Holy Grail to a retailer better than “trends.” “Hot trends” are even more enticing. “Trends that you can’t possibly afford to ignore” might be the undisputed World Champeen of trends talk.

I know because I was told to use that very phrase as the title of a speech I gave to an industry group once. Sure enough, we had a packed house.

“Told ya,” said the show official who encouraged me to listen to his advice on the title. “Retailers dig trends.”

Actually, I would suggest that what retailers really dig are trends that mean something – or, better, trends that mean $omething, as in those notions or circumstances or movements that render a lot of “P” and absolutely no “L” on the year-end ledger.

With that in mind, we’ve queried a variety of industry leaders and observers – and even thrown in at least two cents worth of our own best bets. Here’s hoping all/some of what follows helps you take the lead.

The Gospel, According to Yale
My 2010 trends list starts, curiously enough, with 2009. Consider how dire the year has been. It’s a setting that screams for the brightest, most lively color you can display at your store – as soon as you can display it. People want to be happy again. You have a great chance to jump-start the process.

Another trend I would money-back guarantee is that technology will have a bigger impact on the industry than in times past. Consider this evolution: Clicking the receiver to bid operator Sara to get Andy Taylor on the line ultimately spawned a phone so sophisticated that its circuitry puts the entire ensemble of computers that placed a man on the moon to shame.

Now consider this: About half of your customer base grew up with the  technology revolution as a staple. That collective consumer EXPECTS instant communication/resolution/solution – and shops accordingly.

My third prediction is founded on the notion that destination is about to trump journey where many of your gardening customers are concerned. Hence, you need to provide more instant gardens. Take Plant A, knowing that it would look pretty and grow well with Plant B. Throw in the fertilizer and any of “the like” that you deem necessary to support both. Add containers that complement the scene – or even high-end ones that dominate it.

If you can swing it, show how the ensemble might look in a variety of settings, with fountains or statuaries or faux fences or … you get the idea. As long as your customer does, too, you’re probably going to win in 2010.

Next trend and my last one: Seldom in our industry’s history has the concept of “fun shopping” loomed more significant. Our society is beaten over the head daily with “fun” options, as if it’s a birthright for every American to smile more than he frowns. Meanwhile, our society has been beaten over the head, period, by the economy and by war and by partisan politics and by so many feuding principles that we’ve lost a principal focus. Throw into the mix the aforementioned technological explosion, which has crafted a virtual world that is simply more exhilarating than the real one. Your customer needs and wants a break. How are you planning to provide it?

OK. I’ll pause for breath here. In the meantime, check out a few more “sure bets” offered by friends and industry experts who think they have the future pegged – at least as well as I do.

So Sayeth Sarah
GC magazine managing editor Sarah Martinez’s “maker/breaker” list is chronicled in depth in a blog on our Web site, Here, from that missive, are some notable notions:

It’s no secret that American consumers are dealing with a hellacious hangover resulting from years of overconsumption. That’s why she’s placing her bets on sustainability as the “in” thing in 2010. “No, not the ‘Wow! Look at me! Look at my company! We’re so GREEN!’ type of sustainability,” she said. “I’m talking about real-deal sustainability—meeting the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.”

In 2010 Americans will continue to buy less. And far more purchases will be need-based, rather than want-based. “Products that offer substance and positively impact the lives of consumers will be the winners in this environment – which is excellent news for garden centers!,” she said.

“In” for 2010: Projects that “reuse” and “reinvent.” Sarah suggests retailers print extra handouts on dividing and moving perennials. “In 2010, newbie gardeners will discover this is an excellent way to give their landscape a cheap facelift,” she said. “Neighborhood plant swaps might even make a comeback. Don’t think this trend means garden centers are going to lose out. Revamped beds need fresh soil amendment, mulch and a few new perennials to liven up a bed.”

Another “In” for 2010: Vegetables. Again. “I know,” she said, “the industry was deluged with first-time vegetable gardeners this year, many of whom concluded that the work wasn’t worth the harvest. But I’d contend there were far more who got hooked on the hobby.”

“Out” for 2010: Gimmicky gadgets. “I love ‘Good Eats,’ Alton Brown’s show on Food Network,” Sarah said. “His credo is you never buy a kitchen gadget that can do only one job. It better multitask, or it’s got no place in your cabinet. I take that same stance with garden tools and the like.”

What's up in Washington?
Several of our friends at the American Nursery & Landscape Association see 2010 as a big door upon which opportunity is pounding. To wit:

--“Our customers are going to realize that all this bad news about the economy, jobs and America’s dim future is exhausting,” said ANLA executive vice president Robert J. Dolibois. “That realization, coupled with predictions about a harsh winter, are a perfect recipe for spring fever that tops the H1N1 virus because you can give it to yourself. Our industry can figure out a way to remedy that fever with our products and services, delivered with a smile.”

--“Many landscape and retail owners are turning back the clock between 10-15 years, to when they were performing more hands-on tasks in the field before growing their companies to where they were a year or two ago,” said Warren Quinn, ANLA vice president for operations. “An example is a garden center owner who is again directly managing inventory rather than having two or three department buyers who, if they are still on the staff, are on the frontlines with customers and stocking shelves with hard goods and merchandise displays with green goods.”

-- “An interesting trend will be the extent to which sweeping legislative initiatives like energy conservation and climate change will recognize the importance of a well-managed landscape through incentives for residential and commercial property owners,” said Corey Connors, director of legislative relations. “The ecosystem service benefits of trees and landscape plants should recognize chlorophyll as the green in the green movement, as the materials we produce and sell are the natural solution to sequestering carbon [and] cleaning the air.”

Elsewhere …
Finally, here are some thoughts from the figurative hither and yon.

-- “If I had to guess at an item for 2010, No. 1 would be houseplants and all of the accessories,” said Tim Lamprey, owner of Harbor Garden Center in Salisbury, Mass. “We have seen a steady increase in customers looking for houseplants. Glazed ceramic pots in all sizes are selling well. Tie in soils, fertilizer, insect controls etc., and [houseplants are] making a nice comeback.”

-- Speaking of comebacks, horticulture consultant Marty Gottlieb sees one more in the offing. “In the lawn-care realm, with the recession more people are mowing their own lawns and discontinuing their lawn care services,” said Gottleib, president of M. Gottleib & Associates. “A new lawn mower and weed-wacker can pay for themselves with just a few mowings.”